All things being constant, Uganda is on track to reach a population of 100 million by 2050. By 2100, it is likely to have the second largest population in Africa. Almost with certainty, it will overtake both Kenya and Tanzania in the next decade or so. Is this a good thing? That depends on whether your views as a Ugandan citizen or policy maker are “half full” or “half empty”.

From the “half full” perspective, population surge represents an opportunity for Uganda and the East African region if policy makers can take advantage of a young population growing at a much faster rate than the combined numbers of workforce retirees and dependents under the age of 15. If this dynamic is harnessed through deliberate and focused actions backed by a transformative vision, then it is not unreasonable to suggest that Uganda’s economy could leap past the status of “developing” economy. The “half empty” perspective considers the possible restrictive effects on economic development. As usual, the situation is appreciated in its fullness through a consideration of the risks from both the upside and the downside.

“A transformed Ugandan society from peasant to modern and prosperous country within 30 years” is the operational strategy of Uganda’s socio-economic strategic vision. Readers are often struck by the rigour that clearly underpins this strategy document. If you were tasked with the responsibility of leading the delivery of this strategy, where would you start? It is a mammoth task and the strategy identifies 18 distinct focus areas for implementation. These include:

• Oil and Gas
• Tourism
• Minerals
• ICT
• Geographical Location
• Water Resources
• Agriculture
• Industrialisation
• Abundant Labour (recall the 100 million by 2050!!)

However, the strategy also identifies the threat of some bottlenecks, namely:

• Ideological disorientation
• Weak private sector
• Underdeveloped human resource
• Inadequate infrastructure
• Poor infrastructure
• Small market
• Poorly developed industry
• Underdeveloped services sector
• Underdeveloped agriculture
• Poor democracy.

Despite the ambition of the strategy, one could argue that Uganda is failing to pursue a real transformation agenda. Rather, we are witnessing incremental improvements and reforms, which, unfortunately will not be enough to offer prosperity to a population of 100 million.

Transformation at an organisational level is challenging enough; at a national level, even more so (daunting in fact). Yet there are countries that are truly undergoing transformation drives and enjoying the fruits of their labours. A 2017 McKinsey report “Lessons Learnt from Government Transformations” notes that true transformations are rare and offers the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kazakhstan as noteworthy examples.

What characterises transformations and makes them distinct from reforms (or incremental improvements)? Transformations are characterised by being:

• Inherently ambitious undertakings which evoke visions of great future successes
• Large in scale, impact (on millions of people) and resource requirements
• Publicly acknowledged undertakings with a high level of accountability
• Structured processes featuring clear project management fundamentals.

The list is not exhaustive. However, it offers a useful framework to determine whether Uganda is truly pursuing a transformation agenda or operating in the comfort zone of reform. One could generously argue that Uganda is probably somewhere in the middle.

The aforementioned McKinsey report offers several lessons and insights from its listed examples. These 5 stand out for a hypothetical Uganda Inc.:

1. Change must be customer centric: Any transformation drive exists to satisfy the needs of the customer. It is therefore important to gather real evidence from the customers (population) on their needs and their likelihood to accept new changes. Communication is a critical factor. As a practical example, it is commonly acknowledged that the Boda Boda motorbike taxis have become such a nuisance as to potentially outweigh their benefits to communities. Some would even refer to the Boda Boda as a “menace to society” with increasingly common incidents of reckless endangerment and even criminal activities offered as examples. Yet the Boda Boda is also a major source of employment and it still offers “convenient” transportation. Numerous attempts to “reform” Boda Boda operations have been met with opposition, not least from the Boda Boda owners who have demonstrated a willingness to wield their considerable political influence.
   This game of cat-and-mouse continues despite the absence of any real considerations of the actual end users. What exactly are the transport requirements of the population? Clearly, citizens need (and want) safe, affordable and convenient transport. If a systematic study could confirm this to be the case, then Uganda Inc would be able to proceed with a bold agenda to transform the national public transportation scheme, with a vision of making it efficient, affordable, convenient, and (above all) safe. There would obviously be some objections to such a drastic “reformation” but as long as the initiative focused on the needs of the customer (again, the population) then the outcome would be the right outcome.
2. Focus on the most important issues: Because transformations are resource-hungry, we are constrained by the number and scale of initiatives we can pursue. It is prudent practice, therefore, to focus on a few significant initiatives and then move on to the next and so on. One of the greatest practitioners of this philosophy is Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum of Dubai. In 1985, oil revenues made up 50% of Dubai’s GDP. The Sheikh’s vision was a diversified economy that was weaned off oil dependency. He chose to focus on turning Dubai into a haven for investment and trade, as well as a key tourist destination. Since that vision was articulated Dubai has focused its initiatives on these two areas, with 100% foreign ownership of assets and companies registered in Dubai being a standout feature. Uganda’s history in executing large projects is not exemplary. And the annual budget reading often feels like a game of monopoly where resources are spread across so many initiatives. The lesson is clear: focus on a few big levers at a time and execute them very well.
3. We’re all in this together: Public commitment is critical. A Malaysian leader is quoted as saying “serious reform requires political actors and citizens to get pregnant, because once they are pregnant, they have no choice but to deliver.” This speaks to culture and mindset. Uganda’s Covid-19 experience is an intriguing interpretation of the Malaysian foreteller. During the start of the pandemic, serious measures were instituted to contain the disease from spreading. These included “no large political gatherings”, “curfew” and important personal safety measures such as more frequent washing of hands. For public undertakings to be successful it is important that measures instituted for the benefit of all are adhered to by all. It was not really a surprise when in the midst of the ongoing pandemic, a politician addressed a political rally where health precautions were largely ignored. Citizens tend to take their social cues from leaders and transformations require absolute commitment from leaders. The regularity of social infractions by those charged with implementing public measures and the public’s neglect of these same measures underscores the importance of leader and community commitment. Without a committed public consciousness of the change agenda, it is difficult for transformation to take root.
4. Confront political taboos: Transformation requires great sacrifices and is usually initially painful. Every community has its own political taboos and without confronting these political taboos, it is difficult to advance beyond the initial pangs of change. If you have ever tried losing weight, the thought of giving up sugar is very difficult to deal with initially. Think of political taboos in this light. When Jennifer Musisi, in her role as the Executive Director of Kampala Capital City Authority, introduced a monthly tax on commuter minivan buses (“matatus”), she was confronting a political taboo which held that the informal sector should be exempt from paying taxes. Ultimately the Municipal persistence on the project has probably contributed to an increased level of tax collection. The lesson is obvious: leaders can demonstrate their commitment to transformation by confronting taboos; they offer a low-hanging fruit to the well organised leaders.
5. Adopt an agile culture in execution: This element can be quite confounding because it requires new ways of thinking and behaving; in contrast, the civil service is built on the premise of perfecting traditions and so the idea of adopting a new culture is something that it is unaccustomed to. The example of the National ID project illustrates the point. Many citizens have opted not to get a national ID because they find the process too cumbersome. Too much hassle!! The prospect of running the gauntlet of long lines and an overall sense of bureaucratic defiance is one that has dissuaded plenty of potential applicants. Another non-agile example is the process of renewing one’s passport. Even if the applicant already possesses a national ID, the renewal process does not take that into account. The applicant is still required to complete a long form (it is now online thankfully) confirming (once again) their identity, clan etc. Yet this information is already in the national ID database. A simple technology-enabled process can link these data sets and eliminate the large queues at the Immigration Office. Contrast this with the simple and transparent process of renewing a driving license. Same day delivery. No hassle. Against the backdrop of current practices, this use of technology and innovation to transform delivery of public services is agile thinking.

So to wrap up, Uganda still has a good opportunity to move from the crowd of reformers to the smaller club of transformers. It will require a special application of professional methods and a boldness such as what we witnessed when tackling the AIDS pandemic in the 1980s and 1990s.

How do you rate Uganda’s readiness and capability to pursue a transformation agenda for its society? Share your views on what you think needs to change.

Alex Rumanyika Kalimugogo